United States Grand Prix
Circuit of the Americas · 2026-10-25
Last update: 26 October 2026
| Pos | Driver | Constructor | Grid | ELO | Win % | Podium % | DNF % | xPos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max VerstappenFAVOURITE | Red Bull Racing | P2 | 3453 | 30% | 65% | 0% | 2.7 |
| 2 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | P4 | 3389 | 18% | 49% | 5% | 3.7 |
| 3 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | P3 | 3328 | 15% | 46% | 0% | 4.2 |
| 4 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | P1 | 3361 | 14% | 42% | 0% | 4.5 |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | P5 | 3414 | 12% | 40% | 5% | 4.4 |
| 6 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | P7 | 3335 | 5% | 21% | 5% | 6.3 |
| 7 | Lando Norris | McLaren | P8 | 3377 | 3% | 14% | 5% | 7.1 |
| 8 | George Russell | Mercedes | P6 | 3396 | 2% | 9% | 0% | 8.1 |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | P9 | 3187 | 1% | 7% | 0% | 8.6 |
| 10 | Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | P14 | 3192 | 1% | 4% | 0% | 9.5 |
| 11 | Nico Hülkenberg | Audi | P11 | 3106 | 0% | 1% | 10% | 11.2 |
| 12 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | P10 | 3079 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 11.5 |
| 13 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | P20 | 3041 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 12.7 |
| 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | P12 | 3078 | 0% | 1% | 41% | 11.6 |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | P21 | 3061 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 12.7 |
| 16 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | P15 | 3035 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 13.5 |
| 17 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | P13 | 3036 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 12.8 |
| 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | P18 | 2971 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 13.5 |
| 19 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | Williams | P16 | 2944 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 15.2 |
| 20 | Alexander Albon | Williams | P17 | 2932 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 15.6 |
| 21 | Sergio Pérez | Cadillac | P18 | 2847 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 17.0 |
| 22 | Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | P19 | 2855 | 0% | 0% | 24% | 17.3 |
Championship 2026
5 races leftTitle probabilities from 1,000 simulations of the remaining races, using each entrant's current ELO and recent form. Projected points are the mean across those runs.
Constructors
| # | Constructor | Pts | Proj. | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 560 | 638.9 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Ferrari | 440 | 557.7 | 0.5% |
| 3 | Red Bull Racing | 370 | 489.7 | <0.1% |
| 4 | McLaren | 311 | 404.3 | <0.1% |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 101 | 144 | <0.1% |
| 6 | Alpine | 67 | 93 | <0.1% |
| 7 | Audi | 21 | 32.9 | <0.1% |
| 8 | Haas | 26 | 32.1 | <0.1% |
| 9 | Aston Martin | 11 | 17.7 | <0.1% |
| 10 | Williams | 12 | 13.2 | <0.1% |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 | 0.4 | <0.1% |
Drivers
| # | Driver | Team | Pts | Proj. | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 352 | 391.9 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 241 | 310.7 | <0.1% |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 229 | 288.7 | <0.1% |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 211 | 269 | <0.1% |
| 5 | George Russell | Mercedes | 208 | 247 | <0.1% |
| 6 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 180 | 226.7 | <0.1% |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 131 | 177.6 | <0.1% |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 115 | 164.9 | <0.1% |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 62 | 79.1 | <0.1% |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 40 | 56.7 | <0.1% |
| 11 | Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 38 | 53 | <0.1% |
| 12 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 27 | 36.3 | <0.1% |
| 13 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | 19 | 22 | <0.1% |
| 14 | Nico Hülkenberg | Audi | 11 | 16.7 | <0.1% |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 10 | 16.2 | <0.1% |
| 16 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 11 | 15 | <0.1% |
| 17 | Yuki Tsunoda | Racing Bulls | 1 | 11.9 | <0.1% |
| 18 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | 7 | 10.1 | <0.1% |
| 19 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | Williams | 7 | 7.6 | <0.1% |
| 20 | Alexander Albon | Williams | 5 | 5.6 | <0.1% |
| 21 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 0 | 2.7 | <0.1% |
| 22 | Sergio Pérez | Cadillac | 0 | 0.2 | <0.1% |
| 23 | Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 0 | 0.2 | <0.1% |
Any season, any rules
1950 – 2026Every finishing position of every race since 1950 is stored, so a championship can be rescored under any points system Formula One has used. Some titles survive the change and some do not: the 1950s and 1960s dropped a driver's worst results before counting, which rewarded a spectacular season over a consistent one, and the modern system does the opposite.
Rescoring 2025…
Points are recomputed from stored finishing positions. Fastest-lap and sprint points are not modelled, and neither are the shared drives and half-points races of the early decades, so a close season can come out a point or two away from the record books. The ordering is what this is for.
The 2026 title race, round by round
18 roundsCumulative points after every round, for the eight leading drivers. Exact results, replayed from the classification of each race — no simulation involved.
Constructor ELO, 1950–2026
345 season-pointsSeason-end rating for the ten highest-peaking constructors, from a chronological ELO over every race since 1950. Teammate battles and inter-team results are weighted separately, so the rating tracks the car rather than the driver line-up.
How close the grid has become
1950–2026Qualifying gap to pole, as a percentage of the pole lap, median across each season's races. The last car on the grid was 20.0% off pole in 1950 and 2.6% off in 2025. The curve does not fall smoothly: it climbs back through the turbo years, when a turbocharged car and an atmospheric one were not really in the same contest, and again in 2026, the first season under the new regulations.
Where the driver makes the difference
51 circuitsMedian qualifying gap between two team-mates — same car, same session, same fuel, so what is left is the driver. Circuits with at least 30 team-mate pairs since 1990. Monaco separates them four times as much as Yas Marina does.